Contents
- Baking ingredient inflation statistics: flour and baking mixes at retail
- Baking ingredient inflation statistics: sugar, sweets, and chocolate inputs
- Baking ingredient inflation statistics: butter, margarine, and fats
- Baking ingredient inflation statistics: eggs and dairy costs
- Baking ingredient inflation statistics: fruit inputs for desserts
- Baking ingredient inflation statistics: bakery goods and grocery context
- Sources
Baking ingredient inflation statistics: flour and baking mixes at retail
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) category “flour and prepared flour mixes” measures consumer prices in U.S. cities. It is not a wholesale flour quote or the price of a specific package. In the latest reported monthly comparison, its seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.8% from September to October 2026, while its unadjusted CPI fell 0.5% over the same months. These are distinct presentations of the same category and interval; they should not be added together or treated as separate ingredient-price events.
Earlier seasonally adjusted monthly readings also moved in both directions. Flour and prepared flour mixes fell 1.3% from August to September 2026, after rising 1.4% from July to August 2026. Across these consecutive observations, the series shows a rise, a decline, and then another rise. It does not show a steady increase in every reported month. Nor do these monthly changes establish a full-year trend or explain why prices moved. The unadjusted September-to-October reading is listed separately because it uses a different adjustment basis. The figures are CPI-U percentage changes for the U.S. city average, rather than dollar amounts paid by a particular shopper. BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026, Table 2
| Flour and prepared flour mixes CPI comparison | Change |
|---|---|
| July–August 2026, seasonally adjusted | 1.4% |
| August–September 2026, seasonally adjusted | -1.3% |
| September–October 2026, seasonally adjusted | 0.8% |
| September–October 2026, unadjusted | -0.5% |
The category can provide context for retail flour and prepared-mix prices, but it does not isolate a recipe’s total cost. It also does not capture every brand, store, or package size. BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026, Table 2 and release notes
Baking ingredient inflation statistics: sugar, sweets, and chocolate inputs
The October 2026 BLS table reports three related but distinct seasonally adjusted categories for September to October. The CPI for sugar and sugar substitutes rose 0.4%; sugar and sweets rose 0.6%; and candy and chewing gum rose 0.9%. These series cover different baskets. Candy and chewing gum, for example, is a consumer product category, not a direct measure of chocolate or sugar bought as a baking input. The numbers therefore provide adjacent retail context rather than prices for cocoa, chocolate chips, or a particular type of baking sugar. BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026, Table 2
| CPI category, September–October 2026 | Seasonally adjusted change |
|---|---|
| Sugar and sugar substitutes | 0.4% |
| Sugar and sweets | 0.6% |
| Candy and chewing gum | 0.9% |
A longer retail comparison is available for sugar and sweets. USDA ERS reported that prices in this category were 5.5% higher in September 2026 than in September 2025. That year-over-year comparison has a different period from the BLS monthly readings. It describes retail sugar and sweets, not a farm-level sugar price or chocolate alone. The monthly and annual observations offer different views of the category; the figures do not establish that one explains the other. USDA ERS Food Price Outlook, October 2026, “CPI Forecasts for 15 Food-at-Home Categories”
For baking, the distinction between a broad retail category and the exact item purchased is useful. The reported figures support statements about sugar and sweets at the CPI-category level. They do not supply a separate inflation rate for cocoa, chocolate bars used in baking, powdered sugar, or specialty sweeteners. BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026, Table 2; USDA ERS Food Price Outlook, October 2026
Baking ingredient inflation statistics: butter, margarine, and fats
The fats-and-oils readings differ across related CPI categories in September to October 2026. The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 1.4% for butter, 2.0% for butter and margarine together, 3.2% for margarine, and 0.6% for fats and oils. The combined butter-and-margarine category overlaps with its component categories, so the four numbers are not separate costs to add together. They are distinct index series for U.S. city average consumer prices. BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026, Table 2
| CPI category, September–October 2026 | Seasonally adjusted change |
|---|---|
| Butter | 1.4% |
| Butter and margarine | 2.0% |
| Margarine | 3.2% |
| Fats and oils | 0.6% |
The spread among these reported categories matters when interpreting a baking-cost headline. Butter, margarine, and fats and oils are distinct statistical labels, even though bakers may compare them as recipe choices. The CPI changes describe movement in measured retail price indexes over the reported month. They do not state the dollar price paid by a baker, the share of a recipe’s budget represented by these items, or whether substituting one for another would lower the cost of a finished dessert. BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026, Table 2
Baking ingredient inflation statistics: eggs and dairy costs
From September to October 2026, the seasonally adjusted CPI for eggs rose 0.6%, milk fell 0.3%, and cheese and related products rose 1.3%. These index movements cover distinct retail categories. Their different directions show why eggs and dairy should not be treated as a single price series: the measured changes vary by category over the same monthly interval. BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026, Table 2
| CPI category, September–October 2026 | Seasonally adjusted change |
|---|---|
| Eggs | 0.6% |
| Milk | -0.3% |
| Cheese and related products | 1.3% |
USDA ERS reported a separate retail dairy comparison. Retail dairy prices were 0.7% lower in September 2026 than in September 2025. The report also says those prices decreased 0.9% from August to September 2026. The year-over-year and monthly changes refer to retail dairy, a broader category than the individual BLS milk or cheese series. USDA ERS Food Price Outlook, October 2026, “CPI Forecasts for 15 Food-at-Home Categories”
Eggs also appear in the ERS report at a different point in the supply chain. Farm-level egg prices were 75.3% lower in September 2026 than in September 2025, and fell 39.7% from August to September 2026. These are changes in farm-level prices, not retail egg CPI changes. The distinction matters when comparing the figures: they measure different stages and do not show that the store-price egg index fell by the same amounts. USDA ERS Food Price Outlook, October 2026, “PPI Forecasts for 13 Farm-level and Wholesale-level Categories”
Baking ingredient inflation statistics: fruit inputs for desserts
Fruit can be used in pies, crisps, cakes, and other desserts, but the observations here combine individual CPI categories with a broader fresh-fruit measure. In the BLS October 2026 table, the unadjusted CPI for apples was 1.6% lower in October 2026 than in October 2025. Bananas were 0.2% lower and citrus fruits were 0.4% lower. These are year-over-year changes, not monthly movements. BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026, Table 2
| CPI category | Unadjusted change, October 2025–October 2026 |
|---|---|
| Apples | -1.6% |
| Bananas | -0.2% |
| Citrus fruits | -0.4% |
The BLS release notes that October 2025 survey data were not collected. As a result, October 2026 12-month changes cannot be published for series without October 2025 indexes. The apple, banana, and citrus values above appear in Table 2; they should not be generalized to all fruit or assumed to describe every fresh or frozen form used in baking. BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026, Table 2 and release notes
For broader retail context, USDA ERS reported that fresh fruit prices rose 2.0% from August to September 2026 and were 4.9% higher in September 2026 than in September 2025. This is a U.S. retail measure for fresh fruit, not a specific rate for apples, berries, or citrus. It complements the narrower BLS entries, while covering different periods and category definitions. USDA ERS Food Price Outlook, October 2026, “CPI Forecasts for 15 Food-at-Home Categories”
Baking ingredient inflation statistics: bakery goods and grocery context
The BLS CPI table also tracks finished bakery goods. From September to October 2026, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose 1.4% for cakes, cupcakes, and cookies; 1.5% for cookies; and 1.7% for fresh cakes and cupcakes. These categories overlap and describe retail bakery-product indexes, not separate ingredient costs. The figures cannot identify how much of a change came from flour, sugar, butter, eggs, or another component. BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026, Table 2
| CPI category, September–October 2026 | Seasonally adjusted change |
|---|---|
| Cakes, cupcakes, and cookies | 1.4% |
| Cookies | 1.5% |
| Fresh cakes and cupcakes | 1.7% |
| Food at home | 0.4% |
The seasonally adjusted CPI for food at home rose 0.4% over the same September-to-October interval. This broad grocery measure gives context for the more specific ingredients and bakery items. It is not a baking-cost index: food at home covers groceries broadly, while each ingredient or bakery-product series tracks its own defined basket. Read together, the figures distinguish broad grocery movement from selected baking-related categories without turning index changes into prices for a particular recipe. BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026, Table 2